Will there be another major market crash in near future?

DJI and DJ Transport Index (^DJT) have been in up-swing since mid Mar 09. Their momenta have tapered off this week showing weaknesses, perhaps needing consolidation. Some form of corrections may take place soon. Historically, Friday has a better chance for that to happen. However, it will be difficult to pin-point exactly when that would take place.

As for STI, it has gone up nicely and orderly in steps since Mar 09. In each step, STI went up 3 to 5 days big and down a few days small to consolidate ground before moving on to next step. With such ideal tempo, the rise should last longer than usual.

The VIX has been falling steadily from >50 since Mar 09. It had dropped to 36 and below its 200 day moving average. The low VIX suggests that the fear has subsided greatly.

The current market is still relatively volatile and we could still see DJI swinging 3 digit either way. Unlike those period when VIX was high above 50, the magnitude of swing now should be smaller, perhaps at lower 100's, should that happen.

Considering the above, the environment is not conducive for major market crash although minor market corrections are part of the market trend development.