Market Trend 4Q 2009

V Shape or W Shape recovery? It does not matter!

If S&P500 and VIX were to repeat their chart patterns in Sep/Oct2003, VIX will rise to around 30 in next 5 to 10 days whilst S&P500 will briefly fall to below 1000 level and possibly find support at AROUND 975 level. Thereafter S&P500 will continue its longer term rising trend in zig-zag manner, i.e. peak around middle of the month and bottom at end of month or beginning of the subsequent month. That up-trend move will be accompanied by VIX which is likely to fall to its 50MA level or lower until the first two months of the following year.

The 2003 historical chart for China market may not be relevant as the China market conditions then were very different from the current one. As a reference, China's SSEC declined continuously from Jun03 to Nov03. Thereafter it rose none stop until Apr04. SSEC is currently in down-trend move heading towards 2500 support level.

Strait Times Index (STI) is likely to remain steady and consolidate its current level waiting for the right market mode to resume its uptrend move. It may be possible to surpass 2800 level in that move. The impending up trend will likely be lead by the Finance sector. Bargain hunting at around 2400 level for mid and longer term play is likely to see profit margin of around 15% .

Cautions: There is one certainty in market forecast, i.e. the market will not listen or follow any market forecast. Do have an exit plan on hand for any position entered just in case the market behaves differently from the expected move. Caveat emptor. 28.09.2009.

V型或W型股市复苏？我不在乎！

如果标普500指数(S&P500)和波动率(VIX)重复他们的2003年9月/10月图表形态，VIX将在未来5至10天上升至约30点的水平，而S&P500将简要跌破1000点的水平，并可能寻求975点左右的支持水平。此后，S&P500将在锯齿的方式继续其长期上升趋势，即将于月中达到峰值和于月终或随后月初达到底部。这种上升趋势将伴随着VIX下降到50天移动平均线的水平左右或以下。此趋势将持续到次年2月。

中国指数的历史图表可能不管用。这是因为当时的中国市场和目前的条件不同。以下数据是作为参考使用:中国的证综合指数(SSEC)2003年6月至2003年11月不断下降。随后指数不停攀升持续到2004年4月。SSEC目前正处于下降趋势并将走向2500点的支持水平。

海峡时报指数(STI)很可能保持稳定和巩固其目前的水平并等待合适的市场时机冲刺。在这一冲刺中它可能会超过2800点水平。迫在眉睫的上升趋势将可能由金融股带动。若在大约2400点逢低买盘，其中期和长期利润可高达约15％。

注意事项：市场将不会听从或遵循任何市场预测。为防市场趋势和预期的不同, 进场时必须备有减损策略。买者自负。 2009年9月28日稿