美国牛市分析

以下只是我个人的意见。买者自负...

在过去3个月，波动率指数(VIX)保持在低于35的水平似乎已达到稳态状况。这是一个好消息，因为投资者信心已得以恢复，市场相当的份额将逐步增长。在这进程中股价将不时会有技术调正。

虽然美国金融机构指数价最近上升了不少，它还是有上涨的空间。这可以从GSPC（S＆P500指数），^XII（美国证券交易所体制指数）和^ BKK（KBW银行指数）上周五收盘时都创下新高。以下3只股提供了在这一领域股票部分观点：

花旗集团（C，最后闭市价于4.70）当上一次其价格在2007年7月滑低于200天移动平均线（或200D MA）后，在过去2年一直被视为长期看跌股。于今年8月20日，C的股价跨越200D MA，显示了长期趋势的变化。于8月21又取得新的6个月的跳空高峰日。虽然价格摆动指标（Price Osc）和股价显示反差，而前一交易日又是一个看跌墓碑十字星，可是在短期内，它的看涨迹象强于看跌。看涨迹象包括CCI上升，交易量的增长和过去连续两个交易日是积累日。眼前的目标 是5.50，如果股票以周五的收盘价买入，这将是17％的利润。如果用期权交易，可得较高的利润率。这些较高的利润取决于所选的期权执行价格，执行期限和选择的期权策略。 C的价格有可能上升到7.50这将是下一个价标。为了保护贸易的资本和利润，如果价格跌破低于上周四的高点4.50，这一新交易应该平仓。当盈利开始增长时，“斩仓“出售价也应逐步调高。这宗交易只可在股价高于4.51后才进行。

万事达卡（MA，最后闭市价于207.25）是另一个有吸引力的股票。上周，MA从近期高峰价209.27回跌6.5％后又回升。它于8月 21日开市时跳空。其闭市收盘价是过去12个月最高的闭市收盘价。其他看涨的迹象包括：在过去两个交易日连续积累日和艾略特5波的PTI@57。眼前的目标是220。如果股票以周五的收盘价买入，这将是6％的利润。建议这里用期权交易可得益于其有限的风险和更高的杠杆收益。我比较喜欢用近期期权，选择delta 值约 0.2或以上。为了保护贸易的资本和利润，如果价格跌破低于上周四的闭市收盘价203，这一新交易应该平仓。这宗交易只可在股价高于上周五的闭市价后才可进行。

VISA卡（V，最后闭市价于69.0）被视为是MA股票的姐妹。同样的交易法可以使用。眼前的目标是75.0。如果股票以上周五的的收盘价买入，这将是8％的利润。建议这里用期权交易可得益于其有限的风险和更高的杠杆收益。

美国市场的牛市无疑将增加已经看好亚洲市场更多的信心。我喜欢的新加坡股票也是在金融部门，尤其是新加坡发展银行和新加坡交易所。

Bullish US Market

Just my opinion. Caveat emptor ...

The VIX appears to have attained steady state after staying below 35 level in last three months. That is good news as the investors have regained confidence considerably and the market will move up progressively with techinical corrections from time to time.

The US Finance sector looks bullish even after the recent rise in prices. That can be seen from GSPC (S&P500), ^XII (AMEX INSTITUTIONAL INDEX) and ^BKK(KBW Bank Index) all making new highs on Friday close. The following 3 stocks provide a partial view of the stocks in this sector:

Citi Group (C, last closed at 4.70) has been considered long term bearish for the past 2+ years when it last crossed below 200 Days Moving Average (or 200D MA) in Jul 2007. It has just crossed above 200D MA on 20 Aug 09 to signify the change in long term trend and made new 6 month high by gaping up on 21 Aug 09. For the near term, although the Price Oscillator indicator (Osc) might be showing bearish divergent and the last candlestick was a bearish tombstone doji, its bullish signs are stronger than the bearish ones. They include rising CCI, rising volume and two consecutive accumulation days in last two sessions. The immediate target is 5.50, a possible 17% profit if stock is longed at Friday close. Higher profit margins are possible if options are traded. The magnitude of these higher margins depend on the selected strike price, expiry month and the option strategy. Price of C is likely to rise past 7.50 which is the next target. To protect the trade capital and profit, this new position should be closed if the price falls below 4.50 which is just below Thursday's high. The "sell stop" shall be progressively moved higher when the profit starts to grow. This long trade position shall only be triggered if the market trades above 20 Aug 09's close @4.51.

Master Card (MA, last closed at 207.25) is another attractive stock. Last week, MA consolidated almost 6.5% from the recent peak @209.27 before rising again. It gapped up on 21 Aug 09 and the "close price" was the highest "close price" in past 12 months. Its bullish signs include: consecutive accumulation days in last two sessions and the Elliot wave 5's PTI is @57. The immediate target is 220 which is 6% profit if stock is longed at Friday close. Option play is recommended here to benefit from its limited risk and higher leverage gain. I prefer near month option with delta around 0.2 or more. To protect the trade capital and profit, I will close this new position if stock price falls below Thursday close of 203. This long trade position shall be triggered only if market trades above Friday close.

VISA (V, last closed at 69.0) is regarded as the sister stock of MA. Same trade approach may be used. The immediate target is 75.0 which is 8% profit if stock is longed at Friday's close. Option play is recommended here to benefit from its limited risk and higher leverage gain.

The bullish US market undoubtedly will add more confidence to the already bullish Asia markets. My prefered Singapore stocks are also in Finance Sector, notably DBS and SGX.